Trump Ocean Club

My friend Ken Silverstein has a great new story out via Global Witness about Trump’s tower in Panama.

Put simply, it’s is the most revealing look we’ve had into how Russians were recruited for Trump’s towers.

Part of the business strategy at Trump Ocean Club was luring wealthy and “secretive” Russians — who didn’t want any questions asked about where their money came from.

The money quote in this story for me comes from a broker involved with the project named Alexandre Henrique Ventura Nogueira. Half of Nogueria’s customers were Russian.

“I had some customers with some, you know, questionable backgrounds.” He also said that he found out later that some customers were part of the Russian Mafia.

Another real estate broker who worked in Panama during the TOC pre-construction sales period told Global Witness that Eastern European and Russian investors at the TOC were “very secretive”, especially when setting up shell corporations, so you “don’t know their names” and “didn’t know where their money came from.”

Rich Russians – whom he called “the whales” – were prized clients because brokers could earn substantial commissions working with them. These were exactly the kind of purchasers needed by Trump and others to secure early sales, and therefore the financing through Bear Stearns to develop the project.

Ventura Nogueira was asked point blank about this: “Did the Trump Organization know there were some Russians there with strange backgrounds involved in buying? I don’t know.”

There are a lot of things to like about this story. (Story is the wrong word. It’s a 28-page report.) Not only does it reveal the corruption that built the Trump Ocean Club, but it goes a step further. Ken’s story offers solutions — a rarity in journalism — to eliminate the pervasive money laundering in real estate that built not only Trump’s tower in Panama, but his tower Manhattan’s Soho neighborhood, Azerbaijan, and other places.

The story calls the Trump Ocean Club one of Trump’s most lucrative deals. How lucrative? We don’t know.

But what was in it for Trump? There is little transparency around Trump’s financial agreement with Newland, a company that filed for bankruptcy in 2013. In fact, according to Univision News’ reporting of a New York court’s hearing on the bankruptcy, Newland refused to turn over the agreement with Trump to license his name. This prompted the judge to say to Newland’s attorney: “Go to Panama. If you want to do your deals in secret, go and do it in Panama. Don’t do it in my court.”

You should also check out Ken’s popular blog, Washington Babylon.

 

 

Exclusive: FBI’s Wiretap Application for Vyacheslav Ivankov

 

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Vyacheslav Ivankov

I’m posting here for the first time the FBI’s 52-page application filed in 1995 for the interception of a cell phone belonging to Russian Mob boss Vyacheslav Ivankov.

Here is the link: Vyacheslav Ivankov Wiretap Affidavit

There’s background on Ivankov and his (somewhat tenuous) connection to Trump here and here.

Couple of notes:

  • The document doesn’t mention Trump and does not involve him (as far as I can tell).
  • Publishing the information in this document has gotten journalist Robert I. Friedman sued. (See Komarov v. Advance Magazine Publishers). Most of the salient material in this affidavit can be found in Friedman’s excellent book Red Mafiya
  • This is an ongoing experiment in collaboration. If you find this document helpful, useful, or interesting or you have information that adds to the picture, please click the black contact button at the top of the screen and drop me a note.

Who is Bill Browder? (Updated)

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Bill Browder

This much is clear: Vladimir Putin hates Bill Browder.

Browder was once the largest foreign investor in Russia and, it needs to be said, a great admirer of the Russian president. Today, he is perhaps the Putin’s regime’s fiercest critic, and Browder must derive some satisfaction in the way he grates on the Kremlin.

Browder’s change of heart came well after he was kicked out of the country in 2005. It was the death of an accountant who worked for Browder named Sergei Magnitsky that did it. Magnitsky was thrown in prison, where he was beaten and left to die in 2009 from lack of medical treatment. His crime? Magnitsky had had the temerity to expose  a massive $230 million tax fraud perpetrated by Russian officials.

In response, Browder lobbied Congress to draft legislation imposing sanctions on the Russian officials responsible for Magnitsky’s death. The Magnitsky Act was signed into law by President Obama in 2012.  Browder has continued his campaign in Canada, the United States, and Europe —  and it has driven Russian officials bat-shit insane.

Russian legislators responded to the Magnitsky Act by banning adoption of Russian children by Americans — harming their most vulnerable citizens for what, political retaliation? A year later, in a shameful display of injustice, a Moscow court convicted Magnitsky of tax evasion in a posthumous trial. (Browder was found guilty of fraud in absentia.) The Trump campaign was drawn into a June 2016 meeting with Russians on the Magnitsky Act when the future president’s son was promised dirt on Hillary Clinton.

In the latest hysterical response, now it’s Browder who is suspected of murdering Magnitsky. According to Russian prosecutors, Browder colluded with a British intelligence agent to convince Russian prison doctors to withhold care for Magnitsky. The evidence is comical: poorly written communications that were allegedly intercepted from Western spy agencies.

Russia managed to get Browder briefly banned from entry to the United States by putting him on an Interpol wanted list. His visa privileges were restored by the Trump administration on Monday after members of Congress and the press leaped to Browder’s defense.

The reason the Magnitsky Act drives the Kremlin nuts is that it hits the kleptocrats in their unprotected flank. Russian oligarchs and the kleptocrats who steal from the state store their assets in the West. And what is the point of stealing a fortune from the Russian people if you can’t buy condos in Miami or Manhattan or send your kids to exclusive British schools because of some lousy sanctions?

Browder has rightly been praised for his courage in standing up to the Putin regime. And his book, Red Notice, is an excellent read.  However, the laudatory coverage Browder regularly receives from a press corps he has skillfully cultivated and his star treatment before a US Congress he lobbies require a selective reading of events.

The fact is that Browder was once one of Putin’s biggest cheerleaders, as he admitted during deposition:

Q: So in 2005, you were quite a supporter of Vladimir Putin’s, right?

A: Correct.

Most gallingly, he defended the 2003 arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the head of Yukos, one of the world’s biggest oil producers. Stalin would have approved of the way Khodorkovsky was convicted, imprisoned in a gulag at Russia’s border with China, and then put on trial and convicted again. His  company was seized and acquired by the state.

It wasn’t exactly clear what Khodorovsky had done wrong except he had criticized Russia’s corruption during a televised meeting with President Putin a few months before his arrest and funded a movement promoting the rule of law and democratic values called Open Russia.

Khodorkovsky’s arrest and the seizure of Yukos wasn’t democracy; it was Mafia tactics. But Browder hailed Khodorkovsky’s arrest as progress toward Russia’s return to greatness:

Putin, was only doing “what any leader would do to further his nation’s interests,”  Browder wrote. “While there may be some things about Putin that we disagree with, we should give him the benefit of the doubt in this area and fully support him in his task of taking back control of the country from the oligarchs.”

As for Khodorkovsky, Browder said he was hiding something. “Khodorkovsky collected an enormous pile of cheap assets from the government and minority shareholders, and then embarked on an impressive charm and lobbying offensive to legitimize himself and his wealth. He has been very successful in getting people to forget his not-so-distant past,” Browder wrote.

Now, it’s Browder who has been very successful in getting people to forget his not-so-distant past. Putin’s No. 1 enemy, as he describes himself, was once Putin’s No. 1 fan. (To his credit, he did expose corruption at the companies in which he invested such as the gas giant Gazprom, and this made powerful enemies.)

Here is part of a presentation by Browder in April 2005 titled Seven Big Myths About Russia

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Consider how The Wall Street Journal described Browder in 2006 after he had been kicked out of Russia:

Browder has been one of the most outspoken supporters among foreign investors of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He argued tirelessly that the western media and critics of the Kremlin were misreading the situation and that Putin’s administration was good for investors. He was defending the Kremlin as recently as January, when Browder spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

That’s right. Browder was still defending Putin even after he was denied entry to the country.

Why such love for Putin? In deposition, Browder says the two men never met. The answer: It was just business. Investing in Russia was very profitable. His fund, Hermitage Capital Management, recorded $1 billion in profits and Browder pocketed $130 million in 2006.

When Browder was denied entry to Russia, ostensibly as a threat to national security, his Hermitage Capital Management was the country’s largest foreign investor with $4 billion in Russian equities. Like Khodorkovsky before him, Browder appeared to have made the mistake of believing that he was untouchable. Who in their right mind would ban the man who brought billions into the Russian economy?

Browder’s lobbying of US politicians and courts would sit better with me had he not given up his U.S. citizenship. In 1998, Browder obtained a passport from the more Russophilic United Kingdom. Published reports say he did this for tax reasons but he gave a different explanation during deposition:

Q. So why did you give up your U.S. citizenship?

A. Personal reasons.

Q. And what are those personal reasons?

A. My family was persecuted during the McCarthy era….

 Q. What kind of persecution did you face?

A. My grandmother was sick with cancer and the U.S. Government tried to deport her to Russia when she was dying. [Browder’s grandfather, Earl Browder, led the Communist Party in the United States.]

Q. What year was that?

A. In 1950 something.

Q. I see. And so 1998, this all came back as a rush of emotion and you decided to give up your U.S. citizenship?

A. No.

Interestingly, Britain, Browder’s new home, has been much slower to take up the Magnitsky cause. (A bill passed the House of Commons this year and is now being considered in the House of Lords.)  The Brits have a conflicted relationship with Russian rubles: They have to come to depend on them.  London is where Kremlin insiders like to stash their money. It’s where they buy homes through shell companies, go shopping and send their children to posh schools.

Billions of pounds have washed through Britain since the fall of the Soviet Union, (although nobody knows exactly how much). A group even offers kleptocracy tours of London. The imposition of sanctions by Great Britain against Mother Russia would drain that swamp but it might also drain the balance sheets of some powerful banks.

Browder has been demanding justice for Sergei Magnitsky — and rightfully so — but, at least in one instance, he literally ran away from an American court.  Here is what happened when a process server tried to serve Browder with a subpoena in New York following his 2015 appearance on The Daily Show:

The case involved a Russian financier named Denis Katsyv. At the time, Katsyv was accused in federal court of laundering money that was part of the fraud that Sergei Magnitsky uncovered. The case that was based on information Browder provided  to prosecutors in New York.¹   Browder eventually did have to testify and I’ve posted Browder’s Deposition.

Am I wrong in thinking that it’s grossly unfair and somewhat suspicious for Browder to demand justice for Magnitsky while fleeing a subpoena in the case he instigated?  Shouldn’t he be proud to stand up for his late friend and colleague?

Please don’t mistake what I’m saying here. I’m no fan of Putin, but Browder is undermining his own cause when he selectively uses the law and the press to serve only his own interests.

1. Katsyv’s case, U.S. v Prevezon Holdings, was settled for $5.9 million before trial.

The Russian Gangster Who Loved Trump’s Taj Mahal

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Vyacheslav Ivankov

Remember Vyacheslav Ivankov, the Russian gangster?

He was perhaps the most feared of the Vory v Zakone, a member of the “thieves-in-law,” the highest criminal echelon in Russia.”Yaponchik” (Little Japanese), as he was known, came to New York in March 1992 to organize the Russian Mob.

Despite Ivankov’s flagrant, multinational criminal activities, during his first years in America, the FBI had a hard time even locating him.

They eventually found him in Trump Tower. A copy of Ivankov’s personal phone book, which was obtained by author Robert I. Friedman, included a working number for the Trump Organization’s Trump Tower Residence, and a Trump Organization office fax machine.

Ivankov vanished again and then turned up at the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City, the Trump-owned casino that Trump liked to call the “eighth wonder of the world.”

I’ve come across some FBI documents that add a bit more to this story:

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And this:

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The Taj Mahal had become the Russian mob’s favorite East Coast destination. As with other high rollers, scores of Russian hoodlums received “comps” for up to $100,000 a visit for free food, rooms, champagne, cartons of cigarettes, entertainment, and transportation in stretch limos and helicopters.

The Taj Mahal was just treating Ivankov as a good customer, right?

Who is Tevfik Arif, Part II

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In June of 2005, Tevfik Arif celebrated his birthday at the grand opening of  Turkey’s most luxurious hotel, the “seven-star” Rixos Premium Belek.

Guests came from all over the world: from America, from Latvia, from St. Petersburg, Israel, the Cote d’Azur, Ukraine and Samara.  Attendees included retired NHL star Pavel Bure, Moscow restaurateurs, Russian businessmen, and billionaires who sailed in by yacht or flew in on private jets.

Donald Trump, who had partnered with Arif’s New York company Bayrock to build a tower in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, could not make it, but he sent a message of congratulations: “Tevfik is my friend! Let’s drink to Tevfik!”

Recep Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey and future president, stopped by to join the well-wishers, according to a gossipy report on the party in the Kremlin-friendly Russian newspaper Izvestia.

Turkey has been good to Arif.  It became Arif’s home after he left Kazakhstan in 1994. Arif obtained a Turkish passport that same year and  went into business with Fettah Tamince, the founder of the Rixos hotel chain. The two men partnered in 1999 to build a hotel Antalya. Then Arif expanded his business in New York.

Another guest at the Rixos Premium Belek was Tamir Sapir, the New York real estate tycoon and Soviet emigre who partnered with Trump and Arif to build Trump SoHo. Sapir arrived on his 160-foot yacht Mystere.

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Alexander Mashkevitch

Also arriving for the party was Israeli-Kazakh billionaire Alexander Mashkevtich. , one of Bayrock’s strategic partners. Mashkevitch’s  friendship with Arif will soon embroil him in a deeply embarrassing scandal — but I’m getting ahead of myself.

Mashkevitch and Arif had crossed paths in the post-Soviet metals industry in Kazakhstan. (See Part I) Mashkevitch, together with his partners Patokh Chodiev and Alijan Ibragimov, had joined up with Michael Cherney and Trans World Group to enter the metals business in post-Soviet Kazakhstan.

Back to Arif’s party. What a celebration! What a moment for a simple Soviet hotel bureaucrat!

Two years later, Arif will stand next to Donald Trump at another lavish party in lower Manhattan for the  launch of Trump SoHo, the tower the two men are building together.

And that was the top of Arif’s roller coaster ride.

Shortly after the Trump SoHo launch one of his employees, Felix Sater, was exposed in The New York Times as a convicted felon who had swindled investors out of $40 million with the help of the Russian and American mafia. Trump SoHo opened on 2010 and began a multi-year slide to foreclosure.

And then, on the night of September 28th, 2010, Turkish police roped down from helicopters onto a yacht and bust up a prostitution ring with underage girls that prosecutors alleged was run and financed by Arif.   Some 20 people are detained. Among them, according to the Israeli press, is the Kazakh billionaire Alexander Mashkevitch, who paid for the yacht.

Models

Some of the “models” rounded up on the Savarona yacht (as photographed by Turkish media).

Arif’s friends, including Donald Trump, can’t get away from him fast enough.  “I really don’t know him well, Mr. Arif,” Trump said in a 2011 deposition. “I’ve met him a couple of times.”

According to a copy of the bill of indictment, obtained by theblacksea.eu, the charges laid against Arif are: “Trade in human beings, involvement in, inducement or aiding and abetting to prostitution, traffic in juveniles under 18, creation of criminal organization with the purpose of commission of crime.”

Before I get a nasty letter from Arif’s lawyer, I should say that Arif was acquitted of all charges in 2011 and no underage girls were found on the yacht. It didn’t help the prosecution’s case that the ring instructed the girls not to testify. “Keep the girls as silent as the grave,” read one text.

But the indictment lists the details that Turkish police uncovered while listening in on the prostitution ring’s phone conversations for months. They recorded members of the group haggling over prices for underage girls and this exchange of text messages between a member of the prostitution ring and a woman named Olga.

Olga: “Do you want all models for sex? I should know it because many don’t agree for sex”,

The response: “Olga, client wants sex”

The indictment describes this harrowing discussion between Arif’s major domo, Gyundyuz Akdeniz, and one of his underlings:

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Arif was usually more circumspect, possibly aware that people were listening. In this conversation in March 2010, Arif and Akdeniz discuss the arrival of five girls, (including two 16-year-olds) to meet “guests” (including Mashkevitch) at the Rixos Premium Belek.

Tevfik Arif: What is the matter, what is happening? Tell me.

Akdeniz: Do you mean the guests?

Arif: What is happening at all? I know nothing.

Akdeniz: The guests are arriving tomorrow evening. Mr. Mashkevitch will arrive.

Tevfik: When will the guests arrive?

Akdeniz: The plane will arrive in a little while, there must be four.

Arif: Umph, umph

Akdeniz: Oh, sorry, five must arrive now.

Arif: Who are they from?

Akdeniz: Two are from Sasha [provider of girls]

Arif: Umph, umph

Akdeniz: Three are from the new agency.

Arif: And those two from Sasha are the former ones, aren’t they?

Akdeniz: No, the former ones will arrive at 1 a.m.

Arif: I see, he sent the new ones.

Akdeniz: Yes, tomorrow two will arrive from Sasha.

Arif: Okey.

To be continued….

Who is Tevfik Arif? Part I

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Tefvik Arif was the chairman of Bayrock Group, the murky company that partnered with Donald Trump to build Trump SoHo in lower Manhattan.

Figuring out who he is was not an easy task.

Tevfik Arif (Тевфик Ариф) was born Toifik Arifov (Тофик Арифов) on May 15, 1953 in the Soviet Socialist Republic of Kazakhstan. He was one of four brothers born to a Turkish family in the Jambyl Region in northern Kazakhstan.

That’s about the only thing we know about his early life with any certainty.

What he did for the next 38 years is unclear. The oft-repeated facts of his background come from a short profile on Arif published in Real Estate Weekly in 2007, just as Trump was preparing to kick off sales of Trump SoHo.

Real Estate Weekly reported that Arif had received a degree from Moscow Institute of Trade and Economics and then worked in the Soviet Ministry of Commerce and Trade in the former Soviet Union for 17 years, where he served as the chief economist and deputy director of the Ministry’s Department of Hotel Management.

Many journalists have repeated this story. It may be true, but no one seems to have bothered to check.  It’s worth noting that this is the only reference to a Soviet Ministry of Commerce and Trade that I found on the Internet. There is a Russian ministry that has this name, but I could find nothing from the Soviet era. (Arif did not speak English very well, so it’s possible this is a mistranslation.)

There was, however, something called the USSR Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which was run by the KGB and spied on the West. A third of the chamber’s staff were KGB, according to a US State Department report that cited CIA information. And the USS Chamber of Commerce and Industry did have a hotel division, V/0 Sovintsentr, which ran a trade center and various Moscow hotels.

In the Russian press, Arif is affiliated with the Soviet Ministry of Foreign Trade (which did exist). Or maybe he was just a Soviet hotel bureaucrat, as he claims. Whatever Arif did for the first 40 odd years of his life, he hasn’t been very open about it.

Trans World Group

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Arif left the government and made a career leap. A huge leap.

In a court proceeding in Turkey, the former Soviet hotel bureaucrat testified that he “worked in energy sector, chemical sector and metallurgy sector. I was producing coal in Russia and copper in Kazakhstan. Due to lack of coal, it was not possible to make production. I started to organize them.” He started a private company called the Speciality Chemicals Trading Co., trading in “chrome, rare metals and raw materials.”

And then he went to work for Trans World Group. TWG was a British company headed by two brothers, David and Simon Reuben. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the Reubens moved aggressively into metals production, buying up smelters and refineries.

As foreigners, however, the Reubens needed locals to build their business. Enter Arif. He became an “agent on the ground” — a fixer, in other words — for TWG in Kazakhstan, according to internal company documents reviewed by theblacksea.eu, an online investigative Website.

Arif apparently did his job well. Very well. In a few years, TWG’s holdings of steel, iron, chrome and alumina refineries in Kazakhstan generated one fifth of the entire country’s gross revenues.

Maybe Arif was just a Soviet hotel bureaucrat who seized a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get into the post-Soviet metals sector. But his hotel background would have been of little use to TWG. What TWG needed was someone with deep connections in the country’s political and business circles. The kind of people who had those connections in the Russia of the 1990s were either ex-KGB, or mobsters.

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Michael Cherney

Consider another pair of fixers the Reubens brought into TWG in 1992. They were the Cherney brothers, Lev and Michael, and they formed a 50-50 partnership with TWG. It was a successful partnership. With the Cherneys help, TWG grew by leaps and bounds. The problem for the Reubens was that Michael Cherney’s name soon became publicly linked to Russian organized crime groups. The Reubens quickly bought out Cherney’s share of TWG for $410 million.

vyacheslav-ivankov

Vyacheslav Ivankov

Swiss authorities in 1996 accused Michael Cherney of “drug trafficking, money laundering, fraud and sponsoring murder” on behalf of  a Russian organized crime group run by “V Ivankov.” This was the infamous Russian mob boss nicknamed “Yaponchik” who had settled in New York, where the FBI found him hiding out in Trump Tower and Trump’s New Jersey casino.

Michael Cherney has repeatedly denied these allegations, which he blames on his archenemy and former partner Oleg Deripaska, one of the wealthiest men in Russia. In 2008, the federal Swiss court exonerated him of the charges, but two years later, Spain issued an international arrest warrant for Michael Cherney’s arrest on money laundering charges.

Did Arif have links to the Russian Mafia? Felix Sater, who worked under Arif at Bayrock, seems to think so.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Sater and his attorney threatened to expose Arif’s past unless he paid Sater’s attorney fees. Sater warned of a possible lawsuit that would include details of Arif’s wrongdoing “in the post-Soviet metals business in Kazakhstan.”

In a personal memo, Sater was even more blunt: “The headlines will be, ‘The Kazakh Gangster and President Trump.'”

A High-Net Worth Individual

“The head of the family is my uncle Roustam Arif [sic],” Tevfik’s son Arif writes in 2013 in correspondence obtained by theblacksea.eu. “In our culture, the patriarch is usually the oldest member of the family. Roustam is my father’s oldest brother. Even though my father is a successful entrepreneur in his own right (hotels, construction and real estate), his younger brother Refik Arif is the principal figure in the main family business (commodities).”

In the mid-90s, Refik reportedly acquired control of the Aktyubinsk Chromium Chemicals Plant (ACCP) in Aktobe, in north-western Kazakhstan, near the border with Russia. Refik also established a highly profitable chemicals trading business.  And this is an important piece of the story, because the money for Bayrock, at least part of it, came through Kazakhstan.

Consider that for a moment. The Arifs managed to pool enough capital and influence to buy what turned out to be a highly lucrative chemical plant. How was this possible? What really happened in Kazakhstan in 1990s?

Around 1999, Refik Arif’s chemical trading business was generating so much cash that the family retained Hamels, a UK tax consultancy, to help structure their investments. On its website, Hamels describes its typical clients as “high net worth individuals seeking to minimize their respective tax burdens on current income or investment streams…”

In a 2011 memo, Hamels partner Zig Wilamowski wrote, “Mr. Refik Arif is one of four brothers who have over many years built up a substantial and profitable international business from the sale of chrome-based chemicals.” Williamowski said he was in a position to verify the “good origin” of the Arif family’s wealth. You can read the document here.

With the help of Hamels, the Arifs set up a network of shell companies, many of which were established in the Caribbean tax haven of the British Virgin Islands. These companies included Bennington Trade Assets Ltd., which owns property in the center of London and Merlin Trading Assets Ltd., which owns an executive jet. There are too many companies to name them all. Many are found in the Panama Papers leak of offshore companies founded by the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca.

The real moneymaker for the family was Castello Global Ltd., which handled the profits from the chrome trading business. Here is a breakdown of Castello Global’s profits:

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So much money was pouring out of Kazakhstan that Tevfik Arif decided it was time to try something big. Really big.

He moved to New York and set out to do a real estate deal with the biggest and the best. So he set up offices of his new company Bayrock Group in Trump Tower, one floor below Trump’s own offices.

To be continued…

Facebook, Jared Kushner and Russia

forbes-cover-12202016-final_1000x1311Call me skeptical.

I don’t believe that Facebook won the election for Donald Trump. That’s the claim put forth in this hagiographic profile of Jared Kushner in Forbes and in many other media outlets.

The traditional campaign is dead, another victim of the unfiltered democracy of the Web–and Kushner, more than anyone not named Donald Trump, killed it.

We see these stories every time a new president is elected. A while back it was Obama’s “data crunchers.” This time, the key to Trump’s victory, Kushner would like us to believe, were computer algorithms that targeted potential Trump supporters with social media to stunning effect.

Kushner takes credit for hiring Cambridge Analytica, a company owned by Robert Mercer who also happens to be a Trump supporter, Breitbart investor, and a reclusive hedge fund billionaire.

The secret weapon was Cambridge Analytica’s computer algorithms that figure out who you are based and what motivates you based on all the times you click Like on Facebook, as Cambridge Analytica’s Jack Hansom explains in this video:

These algorithms turned up some surprising findings. Liking the New Orleans Saints mean you’re less likely to be “conscientious,” i.e. do the right thing. And liking the Energizer Bunny means you’re more likely to be neurotic.

So what? Well, one or two of these things don’t tell you much, but the average person has hundreds of Facebook Likes which allows Hansom and his colleagues to build a surprisingly accurate picture of your personality. You can test this on yourself here.

Facebook allows you to drill down to the kind of person in the kind of place you want. (You can even reach “Jew haters” in Idaho if you wish.) Here’s Cambridge Analytica’s CEO Alexander Nix showing how his company’s model could be used to drill down to find every “persuadable” gun rights advocate in Iowa:

It’s very impressive (and very creepy), and it makes for a good story, one that Silicon Valley loves in an everybody-is-stupid-except-for-me way.

But the problem with the claim that Kushner and his machine learning wizardry won the election for Trump is that everybody was doing it. Hillary Clinton had a team of mathematicians and analysts crunching data. Ted Cruz had hired Cambridge Analytica as well, but then he ran into the Trump train.

I may be wrong, but I’d wager the $1.8 billion worth of free airtime that TV networks gave Trump every time he opened his trap probably had a lot more to do with him winning the election than Cambridge Analytica.

Trump knows how to get on TV: He is a promotional genius. What will he say next? He’s a modern day PT Barnum and Jeff Zucker‘s CNN couldn’t get enough.

Setting that aside, the Facebook/Jared Kushner story is still pretty important. And what’s important about it is that Special Counsel Robert Mueller thinks it’s pretty important. Facebook may not have won Trump the election, but it may seriously damage his presidency.

CNN reported Sunday that Mueller, who’s investigating Trump’s links to Russia, had served Facebook with a search warrant.  Mueller was interested in the $100,000 worth of ads purchased by bogus accounts that Facebook on Sept. 6 acknowledged had  “likely operated out of Russia.”

Mueller’s search warrant for Facebook is a big deal, a former federal prosecutor explains:

Mueller would have had to show the judge that there was reason to believe that one or more foreign individuals committed a crime and the evidence of the crime could be found on Facebook’s servers.

The crime is that foreign nationals are prohibited from contributing money “or other thing of value” (like $100,000 worth of Facebook ads) in connection with an election. It’s also against the law to solicit, accept, or receive such a contribution.  (Here is the statute.) And if someone on the Trump campaign knew about the Russian Facebook ads and did nothing to stop it, that is also a crime — aiding and abetting.

Did someone on the Trump campaign know about the Russian Facebook ads. We don’t know yet, but the answer lies in targeting. To put it in Watergate terms: Who targeted whom and when?

Were the Russian Facebook ads and the Trump campaign targeting the same people? And if so, how did a bunch of Russian trolls in St. Petersburg or Vladivostok or where ever know to target, say, black women in Milwaukee or rural voters in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, for example?

I tried to ask Alex Stamos, Facebook’s chief security officer, but didn’t get a reply.

This question intrigues Sen. Mark Warner, the leading Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee, as he said on the Pod Save America podcast:

Warner: When you see some of the explanation and some of the fact that it appears that, for example, women and African Americans were targeted in places like Wisconsin and Michigan, where the Democrats were too brain dead to realize those states were even in play … It was interesting that those states seem to be targeted where the bots — where they could could create a lot of these fake Twitter and Facebook accounts, could in fact overwhelm the targeted search engines that would end up saying on your news feed, you suddenly got stuff that “Hillary Clinton’s sick” or “Hillary Clinton’s stealing money from the State Department.”

I get the fact that the Russian intel services could figure out how to manipulate and use the bots. Whether they could know how to target states and levels of voters that the Democrats weren’t even aware really raises some questions. I think that’s a worthwhile area of inquiry.

How did they know to go to that level of detail in those kinds of jurisdictions?

Vietor : I wonder if they just asked Jared [Kushner] like Trump does with all of his questions. We’ll find out.

Warner : We’ll find out. More to come on that.

Sen. Warner thinks it’s a worthwhile line of inquiry, and it’s a good bet Mueller does too. The information Facebook handed over to Mueller included the targeting criteria the bogus Russian accounts used, The Wall Street Journal reported.

An unnamed Trump campaign staffer told CNN that the key to the whole inquiry may be found on Facebook’s servers.

Only Facebook can answer three critical questions: were the same databases used by the Trump campaign and Russian operatives to coordinate targeting of voters; was money used to promote pro-Trump posts, and, if so, how much was spent and by whom; and will Facebook reveal if bots were successfully used to push fake news posts?

Hopefully, Robert Mueller knows the answers.